In the volatile world of cryptocurrency, Cardano (ADA) has recently experienced a notable surge following a key geopolitical development. After the announcement of a 90-day pause on imposing tariffs on certain countries, ADA rallied by around 18%, with its price reaching as high as $0.63 on April 10, 2025.
As the market digests this tariff truce, the question arises: Can Cardano (ADA) rebound to $1, or is this short-term rally merely a blip in a larger, uncertain macroeconomic environment? NordaLueur‘s team shares detailed observations on this topic in the article.
Cardano’s Technical Outlook Improves After Tariff Pause
The significant price uptick in ADA aligns with a long-serving technical support structure: a rising trendline that forms part of a broader ascending channel. This pattern is crucial in understanding Cardano’s potential for future price movements.
When examining ADA’s recent performance, it becomes clear that the cryptocurrency is now positioned near the lower trendline of this ascending channel. This trendline, combined with the 50-2W exponential moving average (50-2W EMA) (often seen as a critical layer of support), offers a double-layered defense against further declines.
The 50-2W EMA (depicted as the red wave on charts) adds credibility to the argument that ADA might rebound from its current levels. In previous instances, the lower trendline of this ascending channel has served as a solid foundation for rallies, often driving the cryptocurrency toward the upper trendline of the channel, which could theoretically propel ADA toward the $1-$1.40 range.
The Case for a $1-$1.40 Rebound
Should the bullish fractal pattern hold, Cardano could indeed make a move toward $1. This level is significant as it was last touched in March 2025, representing a strong psychological level in the cryptocurrency’s price action. The alignment of the ascending channel’s lower trendline with the 50-2W EMA further enhances the likelihood of a rebound.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which currently hovers near neutral territory, provides further validation for this short-term bullish structure. When the RSI is near neutral, it indicates that neither buyers nor sellers hold a dominant position, suggesting that a rebound is within reach if momentum continues to build.
If Cardano continues to show strength and maintains upward momentum, the $1 psychological mark is a real possibility. Moreover, ADA’s price could even push toward $1.40, coinciding with the 1.00 Fibonacci retracement level, a common technical target for retracement moves.
Macro Sentiment and the Tariff Truce
While the technical setup suggests a potential rebound for Cardano, the larger macroeconomic backdrop cannot be ignored. The 90-day tariff pause is a temporary truce, and the global trade environment remains fragile.
As a result, ADA’s price may not solely depend on technical factors but also developments in trade negotiations between the US and its partners. The temporary nature of this tariff ceasefire suggests that the underlying macroeconomic sentiment could sway market behavior significantly.
If trade tensions ease and the global economy stabilizes, the bullish technical structure of Cardano could indeed materialize, leading to a rebound toward the $1-$1.40 target. However, if negotiations falter or tensions flare, downside risks could resurface.
The Risks of a Breakdown Below Ascending Channel Support
Despite the bullish technical outlook, the risks cannot be dismissed. A breakdown below the ascending channel support would invalidate the current bullish setup. This scenario could expose Cardano to further losses, with the $0.34 level emerging as a potential target.
The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level aligns closely with this price point, adding weight to the argument that a significant decline could materialize if ADA fails to hold its support.
It’s also crucial to note that crypto markets tend to reflect broader sentiment in equity markets. Despite a nearly 10% surge in the S&P 500 on April 9, 2025, historical data suggests that the odds of a positive year-end for the S&P remain low when the index experiences such significant declines early in the year.
Out of 16 instances where the S&P fell by 15% or more within a calendar year, only three resulted in gains–each of which was accompanied by aggressive Federal Reserve intervention.
However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made it clear that rate cuts are not on the table in the near future. With ongoing inflation risks from trade policy, the central bank’s unwillingness to provide the same level of support as seen in previous crises could further pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like Cardano.
Conclusion: Proceed with Caution
In conclusion, while the technical outlook for Cardano suggests the potential for a rebound toward the $1-$1.40 range, the macroeconomic uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade talks and broader global trade dynamics presents significant risks. If the tariff talks break down or the broader macroeconomic environment weakens, ADA could face a sharp correction, potentially testing the $0.34 support level.
COMTEX_465113238/2922/2025-05-01T12:18:26
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