Dogecoin price rebounds 10% as Tesla loses $160B to US trade war: Is DOGE decoupling?

In an unexpected turn of events, Dogecoin (DOGE) staged a rapid 10% rebound within 24 hours, reclaiming the crucial $0.15 level on Tuesday. This price surge coincided with a broader market recovery after a week of persistent sell-side pressure.

In contrast, Tesla (TSLA) has faced a dramatic decline, losing over $160 billion in market capitalization since the announcement of new tariffs by the US administration. Monovex‘s brokers offer a detailed examination of this topic in the article.

Is Dogecoin Price Finally Decoupling from Its Founder’s Influence in 2025?

Historically, DOGE’s creator has been a pivotal figure in driving the coin’s price movements. From highly influential tweets to the integration of DOGE as a payment method for Tesla merchandise, his involvement has played a crucial role in propelling cryptocurrency into the limelight.

US Administration’s Crypto Strategy Leaves DOGE Behind

One of the primary catalysts behind DOGE’s potential decoupling is the US administration’s evolving stance on cryptocurrency. In March, the administration unveiled the “Crypto Strategic Reserve,” a government-backed initiative designed to acquire and integrate cryptocurrencies into the U.S. economy.

However, to the disappointment of many, Dogecoin was notably excluded from the initiative. This exclusion was particularly significant given the creator’s high-profile role within the administration, which many speculated would result in favorable treatment for DOGE. Instead, the US President launched his memecoins during his inauguration, signaling that the administration had little interest in promoting DOGE or other rival memecoins.

Moreover, the creator himself clarified that there were “no current plans” to incorporate Dogecoin into any official government digital infrastructure. This announcement further reduced expectations of any future governmental adoption driven by his influence. Yet, despite this setback, DOGE price remained resilient, climbing above the $0.15 resistance level on Tuesday.

Dogecoin Price Remains Insulated from Tesla’s Trade War Exposure

In stark contrast to the developments surrounding Dogecoin, Tesla has faced substantial headwinds in the wake of the U.S.-China trade war. Since the US President’s announcement of sweeping import tariffs on April 2, U.S. equities have been under immense pressure, with Tesla emerging as one of the hardest-hit companies.

By Tuesday, TSLA had lost a staggering $160 billion in market value, marking a 17.5% drop in its stock price. This decline was further exacerbated by the company’s significant exposure to global supply chains, particularly those with China and Canada, which have left Tesla vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs.

However, Dogecoin has remained largely insulated from these geopolitical risks. As a decentralized asset, DOGE does not have physical operations or supply chains subject to geopolitical uncertainty. Its price is driven primarily by crypto market flows, community activity, and investor sentiment, not by external macroeconomic factors or commodity price fluctuations.

Dogecoin Price Forecast: Rally Pauses Below $0.16 as Market Weighs Momentum Shift

As Dogecoin continues to hold firm above the $0.15 level, investors are now wondering whether its recent rebound marks the start of a sustained uptrend or simply a temporary correction of oversold conditions.

Currently, DOGE is trading at $0.1511 after bouncing from a recent low of $0.14. While the 10% recovery in just 24 hours is noteworthy, key technical indicators suggest that caution is warranted before projecting a sustained breakout.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains subdued at 36.95, well below the 50-neutral zone, suggesting that bearish momentum is still present despite the recent price uptick. Additionally, the RSI’s failure to cross its moving average (currently at 42.16) signals that buying strength remains weak, undermining confidence in the sustainability of the rally.

Furthermore, trading volume surged to 877.38 million DOGE, indicating renewed investor interest. However, DOGE’s price is still struggling to break above the 50-day moving average, which is currently situated near the $0.17 level. This places an immediate cap on the potential for a bullish breakout.

The Bollinger Bands are tightening, with resistance at $0.19 and support at $0.15, suggesting a volatility squeeze. This means that the recent price bounce may be a temporary correction rather than the beginning of a new uptrend. A daily close above $0.16 could shift the short-term bias toward the bullish side, targeting the $0.17 level. Conversely, if the price falls below $0.15, it could signal a return to the downtrend, with the potential for a move toward $0.13.

Conclusion

In summary, the recent rebound in Dogecoin’s price and the decline in Tesla’s stock highlight an evolving dynamic that could indicate DOGE is starting to decouple from its creator’s influence. As Tesla remains vulnerable to the broader U.S.-China trade war, Dogecoin has shown resilience, driven by market dynamics rather than external influence.

However, investors must remain cautious as technical indicators suggest that DOGE’s rally may be short-lived unless supported by sustained buying momentum. The next few trading sessions will be critical in determining whether this decoupling trend continues.